With the end of the financial year fast approaching we outline some opportunities to maximise your deductions and give you the low down on areas at risk of increased ATO scrutiny.

Opportunities

1. Boosting superannuation

If growing your superannuation is a strategy you are pursuing, and your total superannuation balance allows it, you could make a one-off deductible contribution to your superannuation if you have not used your $30,000 cap. This cap includes superannuation guarantee paid by your employer, amounts you have salary sacrificed into super and any amounts you have contributed personally that will be claimed as a tax deduction.

If your total superannuation balance on 30 June 2024 was below $500,000 you might be able to access any unused concessional cap amounts from the last five years in 2024-25 as a personal contribution. For example, if you were $8,000 under the cap in each of the last 5 years, you could contribute an additional $40,000 and take the tax deduction in this financial year at your personal tax rate.

To make a deductible contribution to your superannuation, you need to be aged under 75, lodge a notice of intent to claim a deduction in the approved form (check with your superannuation fund), and receive an acknowledgement from your fund before you lodge your tax return. For those aged between 67 and 74, you can only claim a deduction on a personal contribution to super if you meet the work test (i.e., work at least 40 hours during a consecutive 30-day period in the income year, although some special exemptions might apply).

If your spouse’s assessable income is less than $37,000 and you both meet the eligibility criteria, you could contribute to their superannuation and claim a $540 tax offset.

If you are likely to face a tax bill this year and you made a capital gain on shares or property you sold, then making a larger personal superannuation contribution might help to offset the tax you owe.

2. Charitable donations

When you donate money (or sometimes property) to a registered deductible gift recipient (DGR), you can claim amounts of $2 and above as a tax deduction. The more tax you pay, the more valuable the tax deductible donation is to you. For example, a $10,000 donation to a DGR can create a $3,250 deduction for someone earning up to $120,000 but $4,500 to someone earning $180,000 or more (excluding Medicare levy).

To be deductible, the donation must be a gift and not in exchange for something. Special rules apply for amounts relating to charity auctions and fundraising events run by a DGR.

Philanthropic giving can be undertaken in a number of different ways. Rather than providing gifts to a specific charity, it might be worth exploring the option of giving to a public ancillary fund or setting up a private ancillary fund. Donations made to these funds can often qualify for an immediate deduction, with the fund then investing and managing the money over time. The fund generally needs to distribute a certain portion of its net assets to DGRs each year.

3. Investment property owners

If you do not have one already, a depreciation schedule is a report that helps you calculate deductions for the natural wear and tear over time on your investment property. Depending on your property, it might help to maximise your deductions.

Risks

1. Work from home expenses

Working from home is a normal part of life for many workers, and while you can’t claim the cost of your morning coffee, biscuits or toilet paper (seriously, people have tried), you can claim certain additional expenses you incur. But, work from home expenses are an area of ATO scrutiny.

There are two methods of claiming your work from home expenses: the short-cut method and the actual method.

The short-cut method allows you to claim a fixed rate of 70c for every hour you work from home for the year ending 30 June 2025. This covers your energy expenses (electricity and gas), internet expenses, mobile and home phone expenses, and stationery and computer consumables such as ink and paper. To use this method, it’s essential that you keep a record of the actual days and times you work from home because the ATO has stated that they will not accept estimates.

The alternative is to claim the actual expenses you have incurred on top of your normal running costs for working from home. You will need copies of your expenses, and your diary for at least 4 continuous weeks that represents your typical work pattern.

2. Landlords beware

If you own an investment property, a key concept to understand is that you can only claim a deduction for expenses you incurred in the course of earning income. That is, the property normally needs to be rented or genuinely available for rent to claim the expenses.

Sounds obvious but taxpayers claiming investment property expenses when the property was being used by family or friends, taken off the market for some reason or listed for an unreasonable rental rate, is a major focus for the ATO, particularly if your property is in a holiday hotspot.

There are a series of issues the ATO is actively pursuing this tax season. These include:

  • Refinancing and redrawing loans – you can normally claim interest on the amount borrowed for the rental property as a deduction. However, where any part of the loan relates to personal expenses, or where part of the loan has been refinanced to free up cash for your personal needs (school fees, holidays etc.,), then the loan expenses need to be apportioned and only that portion that relates to the rental property can be claimed. The ATO matches data from financial institutions to identify taxpayers who are claiming more than they should for interest expenses.
  • The difference between repairs and maintenance and capital improvements – while repairs and maintenance costs can often be claimed immediately, a deduction for capital works is generally spread over a number of years. Repairs and maintenance expenses must relate directly to the wear and tear resulting from the property being rented out and generally involve restoring the property back to its previous state, for example, replacing damaged palings of a fence. You cannot claim repairs required when you first purchased the property. Capital works however, such as structural improvements to the property, are normally deducted at 2.5% of the construction cost for 40 years from the date construction was completed. Where you replace an entire asset, like a hot water system, this is a depreciating asset and the deduction is claimed over time (different rates and time periods apply to different assets).
  • Co-owned property – rental income and expenses must normally be claimed according to your legal interest in the property. Joint tenant owners must claim 50% of the expenses and income, and tenants in common according to their legal ownership percentage. It does not matter who actually paid for the expenses.

Gig economy income

It’s essential that any income (including money, appearance fees, and ‘gifts’) earned from platforms such as Airbnb, Stayz, Uber, YouTube, etc., is declared in your tax return.

The tax rules consider that you have earned the income “as soon as it is applied or dealt with in any way on your behalf or as you direct”. If you are a content creator for example, this is when your account is credited, not when you direct the money to be paid to your personal or business account. Squirrelling it away from the ATO in your platform account won’t protect you from paying tax on it.

Since 1 July 2023, the platforms delivering ride-sourcing, taxi travel, and short-term accommodation (under 90 days), have been required to report transactions made through their platform to the ATO under the sharing economy reporting regime so expect the ATO to utilise data matching activities to identify unreported income.

Other sharing economy platforms have been required to start reporting from 1 July 2024. If you have income you have not declared, do it now before the ATO discover it and apply penalties and interest.

For your business:

Opportunities

1. Write-off bad debts

Your customer definitely not going to pay you? If all attempts have failed, the debt can be written off by 30 June to claim a deduction this year. Ensure you document the fact that you have written off the bad debt on your debtor’s ledger or with a minute.

2. Obsolete plant & equipment

If your business has obsolete plant and equipment sitting on your depreciation schedule, instead of depreciating a small amount each year, scrap it and write it off before 30 June if you don’t use it anymore.

3. For companies

If it makes sense to do so, bring forward tax deductions by committing to pay directors’ fees and employee bonuses (by resolution), and paying June quarter super contributions in June.

Risks

1. Tax debt and not meeting reporting obligations

Failing to lodge returns is a huge ‘red flag’ for the ATO that something is wrong in the business. Not lodging a tax return will not stop the debt escalating because the ATO has the power to simply issue an assessment of what they think your business owes. If your business is having trouble meeting its tax or reporting obligations, we can assist by working with the ATO on your behalf.

2. Professional firm profits

For professional services firms – architects, lawyers, accountants, etc., – the ATO is actively reviewing how profits flow through to the professionals involved, looking to see whether structures are in place to divert income to reduce the tax they would be expected to pay. Where professionals are not appropriately rewarded for the services they provide to the business, or they receive a reward which is substantially less than the value of those services, the ATO is likely to take action.

Tariffs are taxes placed on imported goods, and they can have both positive and negative effects on the economy.

The Upside:

  • Protecting Local Jobs: By making imported goods more expensive, tariffs can encourage consumers to buy domestically produced items, supporting local industries and preserving jobs.
  • Encouraging Local Production: Tariffs can motivate companies to produce goods locally, reducing reliance on foreign suppliers.
  • Government Revenue: Tariffs generate income for the government, which can be used for public services.

The Downside:

  • Higher Prices for Consumers: Importers often pass the cost of tariffs onto consumers, leading to increased prices for goods such as electronics, clothing, and everyday items.
  • Retaliation from Other Countries: Countries affected by tariffs may impose their own tariffs in response, potentially harming exporters and escalating trade tensions.
  • Supply Chain Disruptions: Tariffs can disrupt global supply chains, leading to delays and increased costs for businesses.

Understanding the dual nature of tariffs is crucial for consumers and businesses alike, as they navigate the complexities of global trade policies.

The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has announced significant changes that may impact how both businesses and individuals manage their tax liabilities, particularly regarding interest charged on outstanding debts.

Currently, the ATO imposes General Interest Charges (GIC) on unpaid tax amounts, accruing daily until the debt is paid. Shortfall Interest Charges (SIC) apply when a tax shortfall arises due to an amended assessment, calculated from the original due date.

Under new legislation, any GIC or SIC incurred from 1 July 2025 onwards will no longer be tax deductible. This change represents a shift from the current rules, under which such charges have generally been deductible where related to income-producing activities.

On a positive note, if a GIC or SIC amount that was non-deductible is later remitted by the ATO, it will not be included in assessable income, providing some relief for taxpayers in that scenario.

What can you do? 

With the deductibility of these charges coming to an end, we recommend that clients review any existing or anticipated ATO liabilities. In some cases, it may be beneficial to refinance ATO debts through commercial lending arrangements, where interest remains deductible and may attract lower rates. We encourage you to speak with your adviser to explore options that best suit your financial position.

At its latest meeting, the Reserve Bank Board announced it was keeping the cash rate on hold at 4.10 per cent.

Please click here to view the Statement by Michele Bullock, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision.

With the official rate change, we’re watching closely what the banks do with their rates, as some of Australia’s biggest lenders may make changes to their rates.

You will be notified directly by your bank if and when they change their interest rate.

Please get in touch if you would like to discuss recent rate movements or if you would like to review your finance options.

 

In the shadow of an upcoming election, Jim Chalmers’ fourth Budget delivered small but unexpected tax cuts for all Australian taxpayers.

The modest cuts were delivered against a backdrop of growing economic uncertainty, with the treasurer emphasising the need for national resilience in the face of rapid global change.

Tax cuts for everyone

In a surprise revelation, the treasurer announced two new tax cuts in the 2025 Budget.

The first is a cut in the lowest personal income tax rate, which covers every dollar of a taxpayer’s income between $18,201 and $45,000. The current 16 per cent rate will reduce to 15 per cent in 2026-27 and be lowered again to 14 per cent from 1 July 2027.

According to the government, the reduction will take the first tax rate down to its lowest level in more than half a century. Combined with the 2024 tax cuts, an average earner will be paying $2,190 less in 2027-28 compared with 2023-24.

The second tax cut is an increase of 4.7 per cent to the Medicare low-income threshold for singles and families. This means the Medicare Levy will not kick in until singles earn $27,222, rather than the current $26,000 level. The threshold for families will rise from $43,846 to $45,907, while single seniors and pensioners will have their threshold increase from $41,089 to $43,020.

Energy relief for small business and households

The Budget also provided small businesses and households with a welcome additional energy bill rebate to cope with the burden of high energy costs.

Around one million eligible small businesses will receive an additional $150 directly off their energy bills from 1 July 2025. This will extend the government’s energy bill relief until the end of 2025, as the previous rebate scheme was due to end on 30 June.

Abolition of non-compete clauses and licensing reform

Some businesses may be less pleased with the Budget announcement of a planned ban on non-compete clauses covering low- and middle-income employees leaving for another business or to start their own.

Competition law will be tightened to prevent businesses making arrangements that cap workers’ pay and conditions without their knowledge or agreement, or that block them from being hired by competitors. The government claims this will increase affected employees’ wages by up to 4 per cent as they will be able to move to more productive, higher-paying jobs.

Work will also begin on a national occupational licence for electrical trades, which is intended to provide a template for other industries where employees are currently restricted from working across state and territory borders.

Beer excise freeze

Government support for the hospitality sector and alcohol producers was also announced in the Budget.

Indexation of the draught beer excise and excise equivalent customs duty rates will be paused in a measure costing about $165 million over five years.

Strengthening competition law

Small business will benefit from the government’s decision to work with the states and territories to extending unfair trading practices protections to small businesses.

Over $7 million will be provided over two years to strengthen the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission’s enforcement of the Franchising Code.

Subject to consultation, protections from unfair contract terms and unfair trading practices will be extended to all businesses regulated by the Franchising Code.

Supporting Australian businesses

Local companies will also benefit from $20 million in additional support for the Buy Australian Campaign, which encourages consumers to buy Australian-made products.

The Budget further supported local businesses with $16 million in funding for a new Australia-India Trade and Investment Accelerator Fund.

Additional ATO tax compliance funding

The ATO will be happy, with the 2025 Budget providing $999 million over the next four years to extend and expand its tax compliance activities.

This includes additional funding for the shadow economy and personal income tax compliance programs, together with $50 million from 1 July 2026 to ensure the timely payment of tax and unpaid super liabilities by businesses and wealthy groups.

Information in this article has been sourced from theBudget Speech 2025-26 andFederal Budget Support documents.  


It is important to note that the policies outlined in this article are yet to be passed as legislation and therefore may be subject to change. 

 

The Government’s big moment in the 2025-26 Federal Budget was the personal income tax cuts. Income tax cuts are a dazzling headline but in reality they deliver a tax saving of up to $268 in the 2026-27 year, with a tax saving of up to $536 from the 2027-28 year.

At the same time, the Australian Taxation Office has been allocated almost $1bn in funding to extend and enhance its compliance programs.

Two previously announced measures of note that have not passed Parliament but remain in the Budget are:

  • Tax on super accounts above $3m (a 30% tax on future earnings for superannuation balances above $3 million); and
  • The $20,000 instant asset write-off for small business for 2024-25.

Both of these measures have stalled in Parliament and, assuming they are not approved in the final days of Parliament, will lapse when an election is called.

Budget 2025-26 is a budget for voter appeal with over $7bn in additional spending measures in 2025-26 and over $20bn across five years. Most measures extend previously announced and Budgeted items for another year. Key initiatives include:

Energy

  • $180bn to deliver a $150 energy bill rebate extension until the end of 2025.

Healthcare

  • $8.5bn on Medicare for increases to Medicare payments, 50 new urgent care clinics, and a bulk billed GP service.
  • $1.8bn over 5 years for cheaper medicines on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.
  • $240m for women’s health – reproductive health and menopause

Education

  • $500m to provide a 20% cut to HECS-HELP debt for students, and a realignment of the repayment schedule to reduce the amount required to be paid (from 1 July 2025).

Housing

  • $800m to expand the ‘Help to Buy’ scheme reducing the size of the deposit required to buy a home by co-buying with the Government.

Families

  • Three days of subsidised childcare for families with young children (income tested) from 1 January 2026 replacing the Child Care Subsidy activity test.

Lifestyle

  • From August, the excise on beer will be frozen for 2 years.

Economically, trade tensions have magnified global uncertainty. Global growth is already subdued. The indirect effect of tariffs is estimated to be nearly four times as large as the direct effect on Australia, reflecting the relative importance of affected trade flows between Australia, China, and the United States.

Australia’s economy is expected to grow, albeit slowly at 2.25% in 2025-26 and 2.5% in 2026-27.

The Budget will be in deficit at -$42.1bn in 2025-26, before improving marginally but remaining in the red

 

Individuals & families

“Modest” two stage personal income tax cut

From  | 1 July 2026

The Government will provide a “modest” tax cut to all taxpayers from 1 July 2026 and again from 1 July 2027.

The tax rate for the $18,201-$45,000 tax bracket will reduce from its current rate of 16%, to 15% from 1 July 2026, then to 14% from 2027-28 at a cost of $648m over four years.

The saving from the tax cut represents a maximum of $268 in the 2026-27 year and $536 from the 2027-28 year.

Proposed personal income tax threshold

Thresholds ($) Rates in 2024–25 and
2025–26 (%)
Rates in 2026–27 (%) Rates in 2027–28 (%)
0 – 18,200 Tax free Tax free Tax free
18,201 – 45,000 16 15 14
45,001 – 135,000 30 30 30
135,001 – 190,000 37 37 37
>190,000 45 45 45

Resources : Fact sheet: Personal income tax cuts

Medicare levy thresholds increased for low-income earners

From  | 1 July 2024

The Medicare levy low-income threshold exempts low-income earners from having to pay the levy. From 1 July 2024, the threshold for the exemption will increase.

The change will mean low-income earners will pay less when they lodge their income tax returns for 2024-25.

  2024-25 2025-26
Singles $26,000 $27,222
Families $43,846 $45,907
Single seniors & pensioners $41,089 $43,020
Family seniors & pensioners $57,198 $59,886
Family additional child or student $4,216 $4,027

The threshold changes come at a cost of $648m over 5 years.

Announced $150 energy bill relief

From  | 1 July 2025

Households and small business will receive an additional automatic credit of $150 on their energy bills in quarterly instalments between 1 July 2025 and 31 December 2025.

The extension of energy bill rebates will cost $1.8 billion over two years.

Resources: More energy bill relief for every Australian household and for small business

Foreign resident CGT amendments delayed

From 1 July 2025, the way in which foreign residents interact with the tax system were scheduled to come into effect. These changes have now been delayed.

The start date for proposed amendments to the capital gains tax (CGT) rules for foreign residents has been delayed until 1 October 2025 at the earliest, and potentially later depending on the passage of the reforms through Parliament.

The changes would broaden the range of assets subject to CGT for foreign residents when they dispose of them, amend the rules which determine whether the sale of shares in a company or units in a trust are subject to CGT and require foreign residents to disclose transactions involving shares or trust interests with a value of at least $20 million to the ATO before they occur.

Resources: ATO Strengthening the foreign resident capital gains tax regime

Announced 2 year ban on foreign ownership of established homes

From 1 April 2025, the Government has banned foreign and temporary residents, and foreign-owned companies, from purchasing established dwellings to prevent ‘land banking’. The ban applies for 2 years but is subject to some limited exceptions.

Resources: ATO Banning foreign purchases of established dwellings

MIT amendments delayed

The extension of the cleaning building management investment trust (MIT) withholding tax concession was due to commence from 1 July 2025. This has now been delayed until the first 1 January, 1 April, 1 July or 1 October after the Act receives Royal Assent.

The Government will also amend the tax laws to clarify arrangements for MITs to ensure that legitimate investors can continue to access concessional withholding rates. The changes will apply to find payments from 13 March 2025 and will complement the ATO’s increased focus in this area to prevent misuse – see Taxpayer Alert 2025/1.

‘Help to buy’ program extended

The Government’s ‘Help to Buy’ program reduces the deposit required to buy a home by providing an equity contribution. Under the program, Housing Australia provides eligible participants with a Commonwealth equity contribution of up to 30% of the purchase price of an existing home and up to

40% of the purchase price of a new home. That is, they will give you the money and take a stake in your home.

Originally, to be eligible for the program, the income threshold for a single was $90,000 and, for joint participants, $120,000. The Budget increases this threshold to $100,000 and $160,000 respectively. Additional conditions apply.

The program is not currently available to applicants.

 

Business & employers

Non-compete clauses to be banned

Date | From 2027

The Government has announced that it will ban non-compete clauses for low and middle-income employees (under the Fair Work Act high income threshold is currently $175,000). Non‑compete clauses are conditions in employment contracts that prevent or restrict an employee from moving to a competitor.

Back in April 2024, Treasury released an issues paper for consultation on Worker non-compete clauses and other restraints. The review stated that, “The direct consequence of a non-compete clause is that it hinders competition among businesses: it disincentivises workers from leaving their current job, creating a barrier to the entry of new businesses and the expansion of existing businesses.”

The Government is also making changes to competition law to prevent businesses from:

  • Fixing wages by making anti‑competitive arrangements that cap workers’ pay and conditions, without the knowledge and agreement of affected workers.
  • Using ‘no‑poach’ agreements to block staff from being hired by competitors.

Resources: Cracking down on non-compete clauses to boost wages and productivity

Announced Beer tax paused and benefits for wine and alcohol producers

Date | August 2025 (Beer excise)  1 July 2026 (other measures)

Indexation on the draught beer excise and excise equivalent customs duty rates will be paused for two years from August 2025. This just means that the price of beer won’t go up because of tax.

Support is also provided under the Excise remission scheme for manufacturers of alcoholic beverages increasing caps for all eligible brewers, distillers and wine producers to $400,000 per financial year, from 1 July 2026 (up from $350,000).

Resources: Albanese Labor Government to freeze draught beer excise

Trade tariffs extended on Russia and Belarus

The Government has extended additional 35% trade tariffs imposed on goods that are the produce or manufacture of Russia or Belarus. The measure is symbolic support for Ukraine as it delivers a negligible increase in revenue over five years.

 

Government & regulators

Almost $1bn to the ATO for tax compliance

Date | From 1 July 2025

The Government has set aside $999m over 4 years for the ATO to expand its compliance programs:

  • Tax Avoidance Taskforce
  • Shadow Economy Compliance Program
  • Personal Income Tax Compliance Program
  • Tax Integrity Program (medium and large businesses and wealthy groups)

The compliance programs are expected to deliver a threefold return of $3.2bn.

$700m external contractor cost cutting

The Government intends to further pair back its use of consultants, contractors and labour hire. The budget estimates that the Government will save $718m in 2028-29 by continuing cuts to external labour.

 

The economy

Growth

Australia’s economy is expected to grow, albeit slowly, at 2.25% in 2025-26 and 2.5% in 2026-27.

The direct impact of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred on economic activity is estimated to be up to 0.25% of GDP.

We’re back in a deficit

The underlying cash balance will be a deficit at -$42.1bn in 2025-26, before improving but remaining in the red for several years.

Debt is also higher, rising from 18.4% of GDP in 2023-24 to an estimated 21.5% in 2025-26, rising to 23.1% by 2028-29.

Employment

The unemployment rate has stayed low, the participation rate remains elevated, and employment has grown by more than one million people since May 2022 with around 80% of jobs created in the private sector since the June quarter 2022.

Unemployment is expected to peak at 4.25%.

Wages

Annual real wages have grown for five consecutive quarters and are forecast to grow by 0.5% in 2024-25.

The Wage Price Index (WPI) grew by 3.2% through the year to the December quarter 2024 and is expected to grow by 3% through the year to the June quarter of 2025 and 3.25% to June 2026.

Inflation

Inflation is expected to be 2.5% through the year to the June quarter 2025.

The moderation of inflation was helped by cost of living relief and a decline in petrol prices towards the end of 2024. Electricity rebates and indexation of rent assistance (Commonwealth and State) reduced

headline inflation by 0.75% through the year to the December quarter of 2024.

Global tensions

Economically, trade tensions have magnified global uncertainty. Global growth is already subdued. The indirect effect of tariffs is estimated to be nearly four times as large as the direct effect on Australia, reflecting the relative importance of affected trade flows between Australia, China, and the United States. Retaliatory tariffs, if they occur, will only amplify losses in real GDP.

The Government has announced a temporary ban on investors buying established homes between 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2027.

The measure aims to curb foreign “land banking.”

From 1 April 2025, foreign investors (including temporary residents and foreign-owned companies) will be prohibited from acquiring established dwellings unless they qualify for specific exemptions. While exemptions exist, they are limited.

In addition, foreign investors purchasing vacant land will be required to meet development conditions that require the land to be used productively within a reasonable timeframe. 

From the economy bending policies of Trump 2.0 to the growing strength of the far right in Europe, the new alliance between Russia and the United States, the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the US President’s vow to upturn world trade rules, the markets are certainly navigating tricky times.

In recent months we’ve seen volatility in some areas but cautious optimism in others in a reflection of the hand-in-glove relationship between politics and markets.

Of course, economic policies, laws and regulations– think tax increases or decreases, new business regulations or even referendums – have a big effect on how investors allocate their portfolios and that impacts market performance.

In 2016, when the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, the UK pound plunged and more than US$2 trillion was wiped off global equity markets.i

In the following four years until Brexit was finally achieved in 2020, the FTSE 100 performed poorly compared to other markets as domestic and international investors looked elsewhere to avoid risk. While it has risen since a massive drop during the coronavirus pandemic, the exodus of companies from the London Stock Exchange continues with almost 90 departures in 2024.ii

Interest rate movements and any hint of political instability can also bring about a sell off or a rally in prices, with companies holding off on capital investment and causing economic growth to slow.iii

Global oil prices rose 30 per cent in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine causing European stock markets to plunge 4 per cent in a single day.iv Since then, oil prices have fluctuated and are now back to pre-war levels and gold has reached new heights as investors globally look for a safe haven from high geopolitical risks.

Do elections have an effect?

Elections, which almost always cause market disruptions during the uncertainty of the campaign period and shortly after the vote is known, have featured strongly in the past six months or so.

A review of 75 years of US market data has found that, while there may be outbursts of volatility in the lead up to the vote, there’s minimal impact on financial market performance in the medium to long term. The data shows that market returns are typically more dependent on economic and inflation trends rather than election results.v

Nonetheless, the noisy 2024 US Presidential campaign saw some ups and downs in markets during the Democrats’ upheaval and the switch to Kamala Harris as candidate. Donald Trump’s various policy announcements on taxes, immigration, government cost cutting and tariffs both buoyed and dismayed investors.

Analysis by Macquarie University researchers of the three days before and after election day found significant abnormal returns in US equities immediately after the vote.vi

But the surge was short-lived as investor sentiment fluctuated. Small cap equities with more domestic exposure experienced the highest returns while the energy sector also saw substantial gains, in anticipation of regulatory changes.

While currently the S&P500 and the Nasdaq have both gained overall since the election, there’s been extreme share price volatility.

How Australia has fared

Meanwhile, any impact on markets ahead of Australia’s upcoming federal election  has so far been muted thanks to the volume of world events.

The on-again off-again US tariffs are causing more concern here for both policymakers and investors. Tariffs on our exports could mean higher prices and a drop in demand for our goods and services, leading to economic uncertainty.

In early February, the Australian share market took a dive immediately after President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, wiping off around $50 billion from the ASX 200. They recovered slightly only to fall again later as the Reserve Bank cut interest rates. In the US, some tech companies delayed or cancelled their listing plans because of the volatility and uncertainty caused by the announcements.vii

Amid a turbulent start to 2025, most economists agree the markets are unlikely to hit last year’s 7.49 per cent achieved by the S&P ASX 200.

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock is similarly downbeat on the prospects for the year, saying uncertainty about the global outlook remains “significant”.viii

Please get in touch if you’re watching world events and wondering about the impact on your portfolio.

i Post-Brexit global equity loss of over $2 trillion worst ever -S&P

ii London Stock Exchange suffers biggest exodus since financial crisis

iii Policy Instability and the Risk-Return Trade-Off | St. Louis Fed

iv Why Financial Markets Are Sensitive to Political Uncertainty

How Presidential Elections Affect the Stock Market | U.S. Bank

vi 2024 presidential election: U.S. equities surged, then retreated, after Trump’s victory

vii They’ve Been Waiting Years to Go Public. They’re Still Waiting. – The New York Times

viii Statement by the Reserve Bank Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA

Global Google searches for the word “tariffs” spiked dramatically between 30 January and 2 February 2025, a +900% increase to the previous 12 months. We look at what tariffs really mean.

Who pays for tariffs?

Tariffs increase the price of imported goods and reduce trade flows of that good or service.

Traditionally used to protect specific domestic industries by reducing competition, tariffs increase the price of foreign competitors and reduce demand. In his first term, President Trump imposed a 25% global tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminium (which Australia managed to reduce to zero with supply limits imposed instead). The impact was reportedly a 2.4% increase in the price of aluminium and 1.6% increase in the price of steel in the domestic US market. The cost of tariffs is not borne by overseas suppliers but indirectly through a reduction in trade and domestically through higher prices, particularly where those goods and services are common.

For the US however, the negative impact of tariffs will be felt less abruptly than many of its trading partners as trade only represents around 24% of US gross domestic product (GDP) – whereas trade accounts for 67% of Canda’s GDP.

Where we are at with US trade tariffs

While talking to shock jock Joe Rogan during his election campaign, Donald Trump stated, “this country can become rich with the proper use of tariffs.”

In his second week of office, President Trump used emergency powers to curb the “extraordinary threat” of illegal aliens, drugs and fentanyl into the US, by imposing the following tariffs:

  • Canada – 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada (except energy resources that have a reduced 10% additional tariff). Canada responded by imposing its own 25% tariffs on a range of predominantly agricultural products and household goods. Canada is a trading nation and exports represent two-thirds of its GDP. In 2023, the US represented 77% of Canada’s total goods export.
  • Mexico25% additional tariff on imports from Mexico. Mexico has responded with its own 25% tariff on US goods.
  • China20% additional tariff on imports from China. The US trade deficit was over $900bn in 2024 of which China accounts for around $270bn. The additional tariff on postal shipments from China to the US has since been temporarily suspended for items with a value under $800 until the US postal service is able to collect the tariff. China’s response has been to impose additional tariffs on certain US imports including a targeted 15% tariff on agricultural products including chicken, wheat, corn and cotton, and a 10% tariff on fruit, vegetables, dairy products, pork, beef and sorghum. Export controls have been placed on some critical minerals. In addition, China has filed a complaint to the World Trade Organization.

Industry specific tariffs and investigations

Will Australia face US tariffs?

Australia has a large trade surplus with the US which would normally make the imposition of tariffs less likely. However, specific industries may be impacted by product or industry based tariffs, such as steel and aluminium.

The largest American imports into Australia are financial services, travel services, telecoms/ computer/ information services, royalties and trucks. Australia’s largest exports to the US are financial services, gold, sheep/goat meat, transportations services and vaccines.

Impacts of trade wars on Australia

Australia is impacted indirectly by demand. China is Australia’s largest two-way trading partner, accounting for 26% of our goods and services trade in 2023. If Chinese demand slows as a result of a trade war, Australia’s economy will slow. But there is a pattern in President Trump’s approach to international and trade relations that suggests that an all-out trade war might not occur: a bold line or policy is stated – a statement that tells a story to the US public consistent with his election sentiments; then, wound back either partially or fully after concessions have been secured or concessions stated. For Australia, there is a risk in these policy machinations that China again agrees to reduce the US trade deficit by purchasing more from the US, potentially to the detriment of Australian suppliers.

For Australian business, uncertainty and volatility is the problem. Uncertainty slows the economy and impacts business revenue while at the same time, costs may increase.

For those in the business of selling product manufactured and distributed from China or through other trading partners directly impacted by tariffs, watch for more supply chain issues and potential cost increases.

If the US export markets retracts, there is also a risk other trading nations look to dump their products to help offset losses.

More than half of us set a new financial goal at the beginning of 2025, according to ASIC’s Moneysmart website. While most financial goals include saving money and paying down debts, the months leading up to 30 June provide an opportunity to review your super balance to look at ways to boost your retirement savings.

What you need to consider first

If you have more than one super account, consolidating them to one account may be an option for you. Consolidating your super could save you from paying multiple fees, however, if you have insurance inside your super, you may be at risk of losing it, so contact us before making any changes.i

How to boost your retirement savings

Making additional contributions on top of the super guarantee paid by your employer could make a big difference to your retirement balance thanks to the magic of compounding interest.

There are a few ways to boost your super before 30 June:

Concessional contributions (before tax)

These contributions can be made from either your pre-tax salary via a salary-sacrifice arrangement through your employer or using after-tax money and depositing funds directly into your super account.

Apart from the increase to your super balance, you may pay less tax (depending on your current marginal rate).ii

Check to see what your current year to date contributions are so any additional contributions you may make don’t exceed the concessional (before-tax) contributions cap, which is $30,000 from 1 July 2024.iii

Non-concessional contributions (after tax)

This type of contribution is also known as a personal contribution. It is important not to exceed the cap on contributions, which is set at $120,000 from 1 July 2024.iv

If you exceed the concessional contributions cap (before tax) of $30,000 per annum, any additional contributions made are taxed at your marginal tax rate less a 15 per cent tax offset to account for the contributions tax already paid by your super fund.

Exceeding the non-concessional contributions cap will see a tax of 47 per cent levied on the excess contributions.

Carry forward (catch-up) concessional contributions

If you’ve had a break from work or haven’t reached the maximum contributions cap for the past five years, this type of super contribution could help boost your balance – especially if you’ve received a lump sum of money like a work bonus.

These contributions are unused concessional contributions from the previous five financial years and only available to those whose super accounts are less than $500,000.

There are strict rules around this type of contribution, and they are complex so it’s important to get advice before making a catch-up contribution.

Downsizer contributions

If you are over 55 years, have owned your home for 10 years and are looking to sell, you may be able to make a non-concessional super contribution of as much as $300,000 per person – $600,000 if you are a couple. You must make the contribution to your super within 90 days of receiving the proceeds of the sale of your home.

Spouse contributions

There are two ways you can make spouse super contributions, you could:

  • split contributions you have already made to your own super, by rolling them over to your spouse’s super – known as a contributions-splitting super benefit, or

  • contribute directly to your spouse’s super, treated as their non-concessional contribution, which may entitle you to a tax offset of $540 per year if they earn less than $40,000 per annum

Again, there are a few restrictions and eligibility requirements for this type of contribution.

Get in touch for more information about your options and for help with a super strategy that could help you achieve a rewarding retirement.

Transferring or consolidating your super | Australian Taxation Office
ii Salary sacrificing super | Australian Taxation Office
iii Concessional contributions cap | Australian Taxation Office
iv Non-concessional contributions cap | Australian Taxation Office
Quill Group

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